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Back when my company started in the search engine optimization business, there were a veritable bevy of search sites that all vied for market share (anyone remember Altavista? FAST? Excite?).
Over the years, Google has emerged as the consistent leader, with an ever-increasing lead over its main rivals. It is now followed in market share by Yahoo, MSN, AOL (which doesn’t really count, since it serves up Google results), and, finally, Ask.com.
However, two things happened in the past few weeks that could reduce the number of search engines with any significant market share from four to two.
First of all, Microsoft offered an unsolicited bid to buy Yahoo. The Yahoo board has rejected the offer amount, saying that it severely undervalues the company. However, the issue will probably eventually go to a proxy vote, in which Microsoft may be able to seat its own board of directors, making the deal a fait accompli.
There is a possibility that the two search engines would still operate as independent entities even after a Microsoft takeover, but that’s not really Microsoft’s style. The fiscal gains to be realized by laying off an entire research staff and employing only one search technology (probably Yahoo’s, since it is widely regarded as more advanced) are too tempting to ignore. This is all mere speculation, but it also would seem that if Microsoft really wants to compete with Google, they will try to do so using one uniform technology and touting it as superior.
Yahoo’s board recently delayed the proxy vote by a couple of weeks (analysts speculated that this time period was probably all that shareholders would stand for). But after flirting with a few other companies, they recently met with Microsoft executives to hear Microsoft’s vision of Yahoosoft (or is it Microhoo?).
So that scenario would likely take us down to three major engines.
And then Ask.com seemed to raise the white flag. After a serious effort to compete head to head with Google (remember the commercials touting “The Algorithm”?) Ask.com recently announced that they would be laying off 40 people (roughly 8% of their workforce) and targeting a specific type of user. It was falsely reported in USA Today and other publications that Ask was exclusively targeting the female housewife market, although company execs have acknowledged that they would begin tailoring their engine to their existing user base and stop trying to be all things to all people (which Google does fairly well, but that’s neither here nor there). One thing is for certain – Ask is trying to carve out a niche for itself and no longer compete head to head with Google. Another certainty – the butler didn’t do it. He’s been dead for over two years.
Which may take us down to two major players in search. Once people begin recognizing Google as the major corporation that it is (as they already acknowledge Microsoft), would there be room for a smaller, hipper, “anti-establishment” search player to hit the scene and make some noise? Things are definitely getting interesting.
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